Ticket resale companies Vivid Seats and StubHub both reported downbeat earnings this week, with their share prices down 80 percent and 60 percent this year, respectively. The results cap a brutal year for the resale market, as the companies that once rode the live events boom have watched their valuations collapse.
Why it matters
The problem is demand, not supply. Concerts and sports events are still selling, but the resale margin has thinned as primary sellers have taken more of the ticket revenue for themselves, and as fans have grown warier of resale prices. The companies report earnings that disappoint, the shares fall, and the cycle repeats with each quarter. Concerts and sports events are still selling, and stadiums are full, so the trouble is specific to the resale model, which depends on scarcity and margin.
The wider consumer picture is mixed. The same week saw the Sensex jump more than 1,300 points in India, CoreWeave beat estimates, and Asian markets rally, but the United States consumer is under pressure from hot inflation, a 10 year yield above 5 percent, and a Fed that is about to hike again. Discretionary spending on resale tickets is one of the first things to go.
What happens next
The live events business itself is not in trouble. College GameDay is heading to Boise State for a rare Group of 6 showcase, Miami hosts Duke with the ACC title race on the line, and stadiums are full. The trouble is specific to the resale model, which depends on scarcity and margin, and both are thinner than they were.
What happens next will be decided by whether the resale companies can find a model that works when primary sellers keep more of the value. Vivid Seats and StubHub have to prove they can grow without the margins they once enjoyed. For now, the market has voted: down 80 percent and 60 percent in a year is a verdict, not a blip. The companies report earnings that disappoint and the shares fall, as primary sellers take more of the ticket revenue for themselves. The same week saw hot inflation and a 10 year yield above 5 percent, so discretionary spending on resale tickets is one of the first things to go.
