Bettors on Kalshi are assigning 75 percent odds to Jensen Huang removal or resignation as chief executive of Nvidia by the end of the year. Polymarket has similar odds, and the numbers soared last night from the high teens after reports that Huang had a second extramarital affair, this time with a Nvidia employee.
Why it matters
The surge in the odds followed The Wall Street Journal report that the board is preparing to oust Huang. The board met on Wednesday to discuss his future, and the company has not made an announcement about any decision. The prediction markets moved within hours of the report, faster than the analysts.
Nvidia shares are on track to wipe more than half a trillion dollars of market value since the company board opened an investigation into the affair. The scale of the loss shows how much of the company value is tied to a single leader, and how quickly the market reprices that risk when the leadership is in doubt.
What happens next
The odds were very different two days ago. Bettors then assigned only 13 to 14 percent odds to Huang removal before the start of next year, after the board said it had no reason to believe that either national security or Nvidia secrets were compromised. The second affair report changed the calculation overnight.
For now, the markets are betting on an exit. Whether the board follows the bettors will be decided in the days ahead, and the odds will move with every new report.
The odds were very different two days ago, when bettors assigned only 13 to 14 percent odds to Huang removal before the start of next year. The board had said it had no reason to believe that either national security or Nvidia secrets were compromised, and it expressed confidence in Huang leadership. The second affair report changed the calculation overnight, and the markets moved within hours of the Journal report, faster than the analysts. Whether the board follows the bettors will be decided in the days ahead, and the odds will move with every new report.
