SpaceX will post third-quarter results after the market closes on Tuesday, Oct. 20, with investors watching whether its fast-growing AI business can justify heavy spending. The stock (SPCX) fell 10.6% between Oct. 12 and Oct. 16, closing Friday at $146.03, down from $163.42 — extending a decline as the market approaches the print. Wall Street expects revenue of $12.89 billion, up 65% from a year ago, and earnings of $0.14 per share versus a $0.09 loss last year. The company will host an audio-only webcast at 4:30 p.m. ET.
The numbers to watch go beyond the quarter. In Q2, SpaceX’s revenue rose 92% to $7.81 billion — but it spent $18.4 billion on capital expenditures, including $15.83 billion on AI infrastructure. The AI segment generated $2.561 billion in revenue with a $1.257 billion operating loss. With quarterly capex running far above adjusted EBITDA, investors need detail on how much more the company expects to invest and when AI infrastructure starts generating enough cash to support it.
The $100 billion question
Evercore ISI’s Kutgun Maral, who reiterated an Outperform rating and raised his price target to $275 (85% upside), sees SpaceX exiting 2026 with annualized revenue above $100 billion — driven by strategic compute deals and AI growth. He expects 2.3 gigawatts of compute capacity by year-end, above consensus. Pricing on new 2027 deals, modeled at about $30 per watt, is shaping up as a focal point.
Tesla, then the merger chatter
Tesla reports one day later, on Wednesday night, and traders are watching both — along with talk of a possible tie-up between Elon Musk’s two companies. The stock carries a Moderate Buy consensus (28 Buys, 5 Holds, 2 Sells) with an average target of $217.50, implying 49% upside. After last week’s tech selloff, a beat and confident guidance could be the catalyst the shares need.
Context matters. SpaceX began trading on June 12 under the ticker SPCX at an IPO price of $135. The shares hit a record $225.64 in mid-June before sliding to an August low of $104.83 — Friday’s close sits well above that trough but far from the peak. With a market cap near $1.9 trillion, every word on the webcast about AI monetization, Starlink growth and the launch schedule after Starship flight 14 will be parsed for what it says about the spending.
