What will the second half bring for the Red Sox as they try to replicate last season’s mad dash toward the playoffs?

I always enjoyed doing midseason Red Sox reports back when I sat in the chair now occupied by Joey Barrett. So as we stand ready to begin the second half of the 2026 season with four games against a real team (Tampa Bay), let’s dive into the deep end, get out our crystal balls, and project.

First, what did we learn from the last month of the season, you ask. Well, we learned that the Yankees, everybody’s annual measuring stick, are average at best without Aaron Judge. Right now, the Rays are the top team in the league … or seem to be. Without Judge, the Yankees are simply another team. They miss his bat, and his leadership. If the Rays are smart, they’ll hustle to put more distance between themselves and the Bronx Bombers. It’s too bad for the Red Sox that they have to face Tampa Bay right out of the gate.

Then again, maybe it’s not. If the Sox get swept, or lose three out of four, it should go a long way toward defining them for 2026. 

Last year, riding a 10-game winning streak, the Red Sox lost seven of 10 after the break and still managed to make the postseason. As Kevin Garnett famously said, “anything’s possible.”

One thing the Red Sox have going for them is pitching. Sonny Gray has been a Godsend. If you’re the pitcher immediately before or after Gray in the rotation, you’re on scholarship. Off his first-half performance, the odds are excellent that Gray, 11-1, will win. The reduction in pressure can only make it more possible that you’ll pitch better.

Nobody counted on Payton Tolle, Connelly Early and Jake Bennett when the season started, yet here they are — integral parts of the rotation. Add Ranger Suárez and you have a better-than-average staff even without the injured Garrett Crochet.

If the team could only hit consistently . . .  

Of the non-pitchers, the MVP would have to be Willson Contreras, and he’s about 20 games up on Wilyer Abreu at No. 2. Contreras, who will miss the first five games after the break, has 20 homers on a team that doesn’t go deep too often, and has emerged as both an on-field and clubhouse leader. 

I wish Abreu would hit for power more consistently than he does, because the Sox have no real long-ball threat from the left side, especially with Roman Anthony still hors de combat. 

Elsewhere, Caleb Durbin is a Major League third baseman who, in the first month or so, hit with a rolled-up newspaper instead of a bat. Since then, he’s more than made up for that. Marcelo Meyer has been a bust at shortstop, and they still don’t have a regular second baseman, which is absurd.

In the outfield, Jarren Duran has been on-and-off, but it’s really hard to give up on him as his speed makes him invaluable even if he hits a little — which he’s done. Ceddanne Rafaela and his .281 batting average have been a real find (and on a personal note, has been the subject of much needling between my son and me; every time I say he can’t hit, he clubs a home run and Andrew laughs at me).

One thing the Red Sox will have to do is find a catcher because they’ve mixed and matched far too often to be a big-league contender. That has to change.

And as much as I hate to admit it, the bullpen has served them well through most of the first half.

What does all this mean? The American League — despite Tuesday’s win — is vastly inferior to the National League. There are some terrible teams in the junior circuit (judging from the nine games the Red Sox played prior to the break), so with their pitching and the hitting they have displayed in July, the Sox are legitimate. Which, of course, will alter their deadline strategy for the second straight year.

The diagnosis: If the Red Sox don’t make the playoffs, they’ll stay in the race for the duration. And it makes you wonder what would have happened if they’d played better in May and June.