Mark Gongloff

Imagine you’re one of the world’s wealthiest people and the chief executive officer of one of the world’s biggest electric-car makers. It’s an election year, and the presidential nominee and running mate of one of your nation’s two main political parties routinely express deep hostility to electric cars (and boats, but also sharks?) and vow to end any government favors to your industry.

Naturally, as a shrewd business executive, you would dedicate some of your wealth to making sure said nominee and running mate were defeated at the polls, thus protecting your electric-car franchise and your ability to keep being preposterously wealthy.

Then again, you probably aren’t Elon Musk. The CEO of Tesla Inc. has endorsed Donald Trump’s campaign to be U.S. president again, and The Wall Street Journal reported he plans to dedicate $45 million every month to that cause. Musk denied the report. Sort of.

Actually, he posted a picture of gnus with human legs that read “FAKE GNUS.” And later he posted “Yeah” in response to somebody else who posted “Elon Musk went from being an Obama voter to pledging $180 million to elect DJT.” So your guess is as good as mine.

Anyway, not every single little thing Elon Musk tweets or says always comes to pass (see imminent robotaxis, funding secured, et al.). The important thing is that Musk has made it clear that he wants Trump and his vice presidential pick, Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, to win the race for the White House in November.

And that is weird. Because this is the same Trump who has repeatedly bashed electric vehicles and President Joe Biden’s policies to boost EV manufacturing and sales.

Trump has claimed, incorrectly, that Biden’s policies will eliminate “hundreds of thousands” of U.S. jobs “forever.” A word cloud of his thoughts on EVs would include “blood bath,” “ridiculous,” “lunacy,” “thugs,” “rot in hell,” and some violent terms best left unexpressed given recent news events.

But this goes far beyond rhetoric. During Trump’s first term, he attacked EV tax credits and auto emissions standards. Project 2025, a blueprint for Trump’s second presidency written by the Heritage Foundation — with the help of 140 former Trump administration officials, including several cabinet members — would resume this assault on even more fronts.

It would revoke California’s ability to set its own emissions standards, a lever that has nudged the entire industry toward electrification. It would repeal Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act and its EV incentives. It wants to hamstring the Environmental Protection Agency’s ability to regulate emissions and reverse Biden fuel-economy standards meant to nudge the auto industry toward making EVs.

Vance, meanwhile, has introduced a bill that would not only repeal Biden’s $7,500 tax credit for qualifying EVs but replace it with a $7,500 tax credit for buying American-made gas burners.

So, let’s recap: A month ago, Tesla shareholders gifted Musk a $56 billion pay package. He then endorsed Trump and Vance and reportedly plans to use some of his generous Tesla wealth to help elect them. After which they will do everything in their power to hurt… Tesla?

Why would Musk do this? It’s difficult to speculate about what’s going on in the shadow realm between his ears. Maybe he sees EV competition catching up and has decided to throw those rivals to the wolves while becoming a robotaxi mogul or Peter Thiel-esque kingmaker instead. Biden also refused to say the word “Tesla” for a while, so there’s a beef. Still, $180 million is expensive payback, even for Musk.

The important thing is that this feels like the clean-energy transition has lost another friend at a critical time when all the world’s energies should be focused on it. Based on current polling, Trump and Vance look almost certain to waltz into the White House, potentially with Republicans in full control of the U.S. government, where they will try to dismantle not only the EV market but everything Biden did in four years to fight climate change. The Labour Party dialed back its green ambitions just before taking power in the UK. Germany plans to slash its subsidies for green power.

There is a glass-half-full version of this story, of course. Maybe Musk felt the political winds shift and decided to woo Trump in hopes of influencing his second administration. Trump has certainly said kinder things about EVs in recent months, even calling himself a “big fan” of them. Meanwhile, Vance’s hatred for clean energy doesn’t exactly have deep roots. Just four short years ago, he was all about solar energy and solving the climate problem until he perhaps realized such ideas were bad for his political career.

And no matter what Trump does, the EV market has probably built up enough momentum to get by, particularly overseas, where consumers will still have access to cheaply made Chinese EVs without having to pay 100% tariffs. The clean-energy transition’s immune system is a little stronger today than it was the last time Trump attacked it.

Still, as my Bloomberg Opinion colleague Liam Denning has written, the clean-energy transition is still too young to thrive without some government support. After 13 of the hottest months in human history, with the Paris accord’s stretch goal of keeping global heating to 1.5 degrees Celsius slipping quickly out of reach, we really can’t afford to leave the health of that transition an open question.

Mark Gongloff is a Bloomberg Opinion editor and columnist covering climate change. He previously worked for Fortune.com, the Huffington Post, and The Wall Street Journal.